This time of year you will hear countless football analysts on T.V. saying the following: The better team usually beat the worse team.
Stunning analysis, huh?
Now you may be saying to yourself, “Self. I’ve never heard anyone on T.V. say that at all. They give me reasons why one team will beat another or some insight into how the game will be played.”
But if we look closer at what they say, we’ll find that they don’t really give us any analysis at all. Let’s just start with the biggest one.
In the playoffs, the team that gets the most turnovers wins the game 94% of the time.
Okay, so I made that number up. Still, you get the idea. But here’s my point. The team that forces the other team to turn the ball over IS THE BETTER TEAM!!! If the two teams were indeed equal, then we could perhaps claim that the turnovers will win/lose the game, but they are so rarely equal. Teams don’t win because of the turnovers. They win because they have better players and coaches. Turnovers are a byproduct of smarter, better coached, more athletic players. They don’t just occur randomly. Most of the time they are forced when a superior player dislodges, dismembers or otherwise separates an inferior player from the ball.
Once you notice this flaw it’ll be hard not to see it. You’re welcome. I just ruined football broadcasts for you. Now, you’ll never be able to hear someone say “The team with the lead at the end of the first quarter goes on to win the game 194% of the time” without thinking to yourself. Yeah, no shit. The team that scores the most points in the first 1/4 of the game probably scored them because they’re better than the other team.